A Cushion, Not a Windfall: Wisconsin’s $3.3 Billion Surplus

Wisconsin’s $3.3 billion general fund balance is a topic often discussed on the campaign trail and one policy makers are watching closely ahead of the next state budget. Forward Analytics has released A Cushion, Not a Windfall: Wisconsin’s $3.3 Billion Surplus, a primer on what that surplus figure is, where it comes from, and just as importantly, what it isn’t.

The bottom line: Wisconsin’s surplus is real, but it isn’t new money. Wisconsin started fiscal year 2026 with $4.61 billion in the bank, took in $23.8 billion, and spent or transferred $25.1 billion. It ended the year with $3.31 billion, about $1.3 billion less than its starting balance.

Using the latest figures from the state’s Annual Fiscal Report and a simple household-budget example, the Spotlight gives policymakers, reporters, and voters a common set of facts to work from as the conversation about what comes next takes shape.

The figure is technically a surplus, but most of it is already spoken for. Every estimate expected the balance to fall during the year because the budget spends more than the state collects. Only the difference between projected and actual is new money, about 1.5 percent of the state’s general purpose revenue budget.

Estimates of the FY 2026 Ending Balance:

The balance is also shrinking by design. In FY 2026, spending and transfers exceeded revenues by about $1.4 billion, drawing the balance down from $4.6 billion to $3.3 billion. It remains far above anything Wisconsin held before 2020, but it is now less than half of its FY 2023 peak of $7.07 billion.

State General Fund Ending Balances:

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau projects that FY 2027 spending will exceed revenues by $582 million. As a result, the 2027-29 budget, the first under a new governor, will start with a smaller cushion and an ongoing gap between revenues and commitments. For counties and municipalities, that means decisions on shared revenue, county aids and levy limits will be made with less room than in the past two budgets.

Read the full Spotlight: A Cushion, Not a Windfall: Wisconsin’s $3.3 Billion Surplus